A dramatic rise in petrol importation has intensified the ongoing conflict between Nigeria’s independent oil marketers and the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery, casting a shadow over the country’s ambitious efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.
Fresh data obtained from the Tanker Position Report reveals that over 496.17 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) were imported into the country between May 11 and 20, 2025, underscoring marketers’ preference for foreign-sourced fuel despite the Dangote refinery’s ramped-up production.
The importation, which amounts to 370,000 metric tonnes of PMS, came at a steep cost. With the average landing cost pegged at ₦879.48 per litre, marketers spent an estimated ₦436.37 billion on imports in just nine days. This adds to the ₦2.42 trillion expended from March 1 to May 9, and ₦4.51 trillion between October 2024 and February 2025.
This spike in imports follows recent remarks by Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group, who admitted that his mega-refinery was still “fighting for survival” amid low patronage and stiff resistance from entrenched oil interests.
Dangote lamented that the battle with powerful fuel import cartels, which began before the refinery’s operations commenced, had not abated.
Industry insiders attribute the growing rift to multiple factors, including what marketers describe as the non-competitive pricing and unfavourable business terms imposed by the Dangote Refinery. Many believe these conditions have compelled importers to return to sourcing fuel abroad, especially from Europe.
According to the S&P Global Commodities at Sea report, gasoline shipments to Nigeria and Togo climbed from 200,000 barrels per day in January to 300,000 b/d in March, indicating growing reliance on external suppliers.
Togo’s offshore Lome market has emerged as a key transshipment hub for Nigerian fuel imports, a trend driven by tax minimisation and the continued use of U.S. dollars, despite the Nigerian government’s push to enforce transactions in naira.
The scale of importation is striking. Pinnacle Oil led with 152,000 metric tonnes delivered near the Lekki axis, accounting for nearly half of the nine-day import volume.
Seven other major independent marketers imported over 167 million litres, including AA Rano, Sunbeth, OBAT, Rainoil, Matrix, Prudent Energy, and Mainland (Calabar). Three more vessels, bearing 56,000 metric tonnes, were expected to berth in Lagos and Calabar on May 20.
Mounting market tensions
Commenting on the situation, Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), said the full deregulation of the downstream sector had fostered a “price war” among players.
He pointed out that if Dangote’s pricing model were more competitive, marketers would not bear the heavy burden of importing fuel.
“The sudden spike in imports didn’t happen in previous months, and it signals that something may be off with Dangote’s pricing template. Marketers wouldn’t import if they were losing money,” Ukadike said.
He added that supply must be prioritised, regardless of the source. “We want to ensure consistent availability of petroleum products. Whether it’s from Dangote or from abroad, we’re here to keep the market stable.”
Retailers struggle to stay afloat
The president of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, painted a grim picture of the downstream sector’s health.
Over 70% of the association’s 7,000 outlets, he said, have been shuttered due to operational difficulties and unstable pricing.
He likened the situation to the business strategy once employed by India’s Mukesh Ambani, who endured huge losses to secure market dominance. “We fear that Nigeria may be repeating a dangerous market experiment,” he warned.
While acknowledging the significance of the Dangote Refinery, Gillis-Harry cautioned that its success must not come at the expense of smaller players. “If Dangote’s happiness throws me out of business, how do I celebrate it?”
Refinery’s growing dominance
Oil and gas analyst Olatide Jeremiah added that the Dangote Refinery’s daily gantry loading capacity of over 2,500 trucks has shrunk the market share of traditional fuel importers by at least 50%, creating fierce competition.
“This has sparked a business conflict. Depot owners and importers feel squeezed out and are returning to importation as a survival strategy,” he said. According to him, established players are now using their global networks and experience to beat Dangote on landing costs, thus enabling them to sell fuel at more attractive prices locally.
A brewing industry showdown
As this market standoff escalates, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said the Dangote Refinery is facing a shortfall in supply, indirectly validating marketers’ concerns.
While Dangote claims the facility can meet Nigeria’s fuel demand, the surge in imports tells a different story. Observers warn that unless pricing, access, and supply chain issues are addressed urgently, Nigeria’s quest for fuel self-sufficiency may remain elusive.
The rift between private importers and the Dangote Refinery underscores the complex interplay between market liberalisation, monopolistic fears, and survival instincts in a volatile energy market.
For now, the downstream sector seems locked in a high-stakes game of attrition — one that could determine the future of domestic refining in Africa’s largest oil-producing nation.
