WASHINGTON D.C. — Nigeria received measured applause from global financiers at the 2025 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, as bold reforms lifted confidence, but fiscal and debt risks drew fresh warnings.
The IMF upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.9 percent, citing stronger domestic fundamentals, rising investor sentiment, and improved oil production. However, the Fund cautioned that growing debt costs and fragile fiscal space could threaten progress if not carefully managed.
“Nigeria’s reforms — from exchange rate unification to subsidy removal — are commendable,” said Abebe Selassie, IMF’s Africa Department Director. “But maintaining policy consistency, improving revenue efficiency, and managing debt prudently will be critical to sustaining gains.”
Leading Nigeria’s delegation, Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the government’s resolve to continue its reform drive despite mounting pressures. He highlighted that headline inflation, which topped 30 percent in 2024, had fallen to 18.02 percent by September 2025 — its lowest in three years — while foreign reserves rose to $43 billion, providing 11 months of import cover.
“The danger of slowing down is losing progress already achieved,” Cardoso said. “This is a marathon, not a sprint. Nigerians will begin to feel the benefits as stability takes root.”
The IMF acknowledged Nigeria’s macroeconomic turnaround but urged vigilance. Fiscal deficits are projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2026, as interest payments and spending pressures grow.
“Debt servicing continues to crowd out vital development spending,” said Davide Furceri, from the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, urging Nigeria to boost non-oil revenues and digitalise tax systems.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva endorsed Nigeria’s efforts to curb illicit financial flows, stressing that improved oversight of digital finance is vital to safeguard public revenues. “Tracing illicit flows can help close leakages that have long undermined growth,” she said.
Meanwhile, Cardoso revealed that Nigeria’s trade surplus had reached six percent of GDP, driven by export diversification and reduced import dependence. He also announced a redesigned local currency trade framework with China, aiming for “mutually beneficial” outcomes after earlier challenges.
At the meetings, Finance Minister Uzoka-Anite emphasised inclusive growth, promising more investments in agriculture, digital innovation, and infrastructure to create jobs for youth and women.
On a separate panel, Tony Elumelu, Chairman of UBA, called for bold investment in digital technologies and AI to drive Africa’s productivity. “Africa must not miss its AI moment,” he urged. “We must ensure technology democratises prosperity, not deepens inequality.”
Summing up Nigeria’s message to the global financial community, Cardoso said: “Our story is one of resilience — aligning courage with conviction to build a more competitive, innovative, and inclusive economy.”
IMF Chief Georgieva echoed that sentiment: “Nigeria is on the right path. The reforms are difficult, but they are essential. Staying the course will determine the rewards.”
