The price of gold is still in the back foot near US$1830. Although the rise of the US dollar has stalled, it still cannot overcome the minor resistance near US$1836. This obstacle represents 50 horizontal SMA of the club per hour. At the same time, as the U.S. dollar weakened its previous gains before the release of key US CPI data, gold is still in a downturn, which may set the tone for the market in the next few days.
Increasing inflation has made the overall supply of dollars and government bond yields defensive, keeping gold prices within a narrow range. As the world emerged from the ban and demand for goods and services continued to grow, traders turned to inflation data to be released on Wednesday. Consumer inflation data forecasts for April will show the highest annualized growth rate in the past decade.
Traders predict that the CPI in April will increase by 3.6% year-on-year, which is impressive. This is an increase of 2.6% over the previous month. The producer price index will be released on Thursday to confirm the upward price trend reflected in the company’s report. Another important piece of information will be the US retail data released on Friday. Price forecasts may be affected by conditions in the US bond market. Inflation worries about the commodity boom drove the increase in yields. 1.60% to 1.63%.
Westpac said that relative to the key date we expected, the market expects the CPI to rise 0.2% in April. Due to the potential impact, the growth rate will reach 3.6% before the end of the year. Therefore, at this stage, it is very possible to continue upward movement within 4 hours.
However, if the support level breaks, the bearish transition between the 8-day and the 20-day EMA and the retest of the previous support level are expected to cause resistance and balance to the support level, which is conducive to the short tilt.